Dire Times for the Auto Industry


Doc

Huge ****ing Crybaby
May 15, 2006
113
Bankruptcy is the only real solution. Most of us (consumers) would never know the difference. The companies would reorganize in BK Court and the profitable platforms would continue to flow off the line.

If the Feds give them money to prop them up, they will be nothing more than like the Japanese companies that were struggling in a zombie like state for years until they were finally allowed to die.

Do you, a taxpayer, really want to fund UAW's Jobs Bank program (no work, get paid)?

Detroit employees 200,000 hourly workers while the southern auto manufacturers employ 130,000. It's curious to me that the southern producers need no handout.

Nonetheless, the unions own the democratic party, and that party is in power. We may soon be riding around in the Chevy Pelosi (ugly, with 22 hp), or the Ford Dingle (dishonest, will steal itself).

Nancy Pelosi's Motown Juggling Act
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122663352177627551.html
 
H

HHGT

Guest
The big three will never be able to compete. Why?

Chevy has $1,500 built in cost for benefits
Toyota has $180 built in cost for Benefits

These numbers are according to Neil Cavuto.

The same thing happened in the software industry with giants like Microsoft, Intel etc. going to India to reduce it's development costs. Wallmart went to China for its products, Delta & Sprint went to India for customer service, AMEX & Cadillac went to the Philippines for various other support. You get the idea....

Unless the Big 3 invent something revolutionary to reduce costs significantly, their assembly will move to Third World Countries. Buick is already in China and VERY SUCCESSFUL. I predict that the Auto Unions will die a natural death in the next 10 years and even worst, China and/or India will continue buying the core of this country, Automotive Giants included. Sad but true:frown.

This is not the same America I immigrated to back when I was 15 and it genuinely brings tears to my eyes. Regardless, we live in the greatest country in the world.
 

Kingman

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Aug 11, 2006
4,072
Surf City, USA
Bankruptcy is the only real solution. Most of us (consumers) would never know the difference. The companies would reorganize in BK Court and the profitable platforms would continue to flow off the line.

With all due respect, this is not a very informed position. 1 out of 10 jobs in the US has a link to the auto industry.

.....and it doesn't matter what part of the country you are from.
 
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Kingman

GT Owner
Mark II Lifetime
Aug 11, 2006
4,072
Surf City, USA
This note just came out of GM and was forwarded to their immediate suppliers
__________________________________________

I'm attaching an urgent request we have received from our General Motors clients. Please read the letter, and then I hope you will either call or write your elected representatives in Washington and ask them to support the automotive industry. GM has established a Web site that makes it very simple to express your point of view: www.gmfactsandfiction.com <http://www.gmfactsandfiction.com>

· To call, just click the "I'm a Supplier" button. Follow the directions, and you will be transferred to the offices of your representative or senators.
· To write, just click the "I'm a Concerned American" button, and there is a letter ready for you to forward.

Here's the request:
From: Betsy Lazar
Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2008 16:34:09 -0500
Subject: Urgent Message From General Motors To our partners at IPG, Needless to say, it has been a challenging year, but your teams have been strong, and have demonstrated true partnership every step of the way. Thank you for all that you do for GM. It is no secret that the auto industry is at a crossroads. Companies that support millions of workers and families across the U.S. have been slammed by the worst economic downturn in 75 years. Particularly frustrating is that this crisis struck just at a time when these companies were successfully restructuring themselves and creating a new generation of cleaner, more efficient vehicles. This progress, and the very existence of the U.S.-based auto industry, is threatened. Discussions are now underway in Washington D.C. about government support for this vital industry through this downturn. We are asking for your support, too. The U.S auto industry has been hit at every level by the global financial crisis. Carmakers can't get loans to complete their restructuring and put advanced technology vehicles into production. Customers can't get credit for new cars, and consumer confidence has plunged to an all-time low. Suppliers and dealers can't get loans for routine business needs. This crisis caught the U.S. auto industry in the midst of a successful restructuring. Domestic carmakers have closed the productivity gap with their global competitors, and GM has closed the quality gap as well. New labor agreements are in place to make U.S. manufacturers' costs competitive with non-union transplant factories. Since 2005, GM has taken a series of bold steps to restructure its business and reduce its structural cost. In fact, since 2005, GM has reduced structural cost in North America by over $9 billion. And more recently, GM has outlined plans to enhance its liquidity position by $20 billion through 2009. And, we've tightened our belt in hundreds of other ways, large and small - some of which you have felt too. On the product front, we have introduced a series of award-winning products, including the Saturn Aura, Cadillac CTS, Chevy Malibu and Buick Enclave. Today, we have the most models that get an EPA-estimated 30 mpg or better on the highway, more vehicles capable of running on E85 ethanol than any other automaker and a wide variety of hybrids, one for every need. We are also testing the world's largest fleet of hydrogen-powered cars right now and are committed to building the Chevy Volt extended-range electric car in 2010. However, faced with the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and the worst car sales since World War II, this hasn't been enough. This current crisis knows no geographic boundaries. What happens to the U.S. auto industry also had an immediate impact on Main Street. U.S.-based carmakers have 105 plants in 20 states, including California, Texas, Kansas, Louisiana and Maryland. They support 14,000 dealers across the country, and these dealers in turn employ 740,000 people, with a total payroll of $35 billion a year. The companies buy $156 billion in parts and services from suppliers in every state. The auto companies provide pensions for 775,000 and health care benefits for 2 million. Because carmakers are so tightly woven into the fabric of the U.S. economy, the collapse of this industry would reach far beyond Detroit. The Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor predicts that a collapse of U.S.-based carmakers would lead to widespread failures of supplier companies, already pushed to the brink by the downturn, and this in turn would shut down the transplant factories owned by Toyota, Honda and other non-U.S. companies. Shockwaves through the economy would quickly put nearly 3 million people out of work. In the first year alone, personal income would drop by $150 billion, and tax and social security receipts would fall by more than $45 billion. Faced with these risks to the well-being of millions of Americans, and to the U.S. economy as a whole, it is clear to us that government support is a sound investment in an important industry, and in America itself. The Aura, CTS, Malibu and Enclave show that GM can compete with the best. Our aggressive restructuring and rapid global growth shows our commitment to reinventing our company. And the Chevy Volt and other advanced technology vehicles show our passion for being a leader in reinventing the automobile. Please share this information with all of your employees, friends and family, and other stakeholders. We hope you will ask your legislators and other political leaders to support the U.S. auto industry through this critical transformation. It's easy and turnkey. Please take a minute to go to www.gmfactsandfiction.com <http://www.gmfactsandfiction.com> to show your support and let your voice be heard. To give you more context and the facts, attached are some industry talking points and the study recently released by industry analyst, David Cole, with the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), entitled: "The Impact of the U.S. Economy of a Major Contraction of the Detroit Three Automakers." Thank you for continued support.

Respectfully,
Betsy Lazar
Executive Director, Advertising and Media Operations
General Motors Corporation
 

B O N Y

MODERATOR & FGT OWNER
Mark IV Lifetime
Sep 5, 2005
12,110
Fresno, Ca.
King has said it...
DBK has said it...
I agree bankruptcy is not the answer.
 

Doc

Huge ****ing Crybaby
May 15, 2006
113
With all due respect, this is not a very informed position. 1 out of 10 jobs in the US has a link to the auto industry.

.....and it doesn't matter what part of the country you are from.
With all due respect, it's just my opinion.

I never said Detroit auto production would stop. Most of the jobs would still be working in reorganization from the bankruptcy court. They will continue to manufacturer the profitable platforms while throwing out the unprofitable platforms.

I doubt that 1 in 10 jobs in this economy is directly related to Detroit.

Regardless, it is not my decision. The democrats will certainly have the where-with-all to clean up this mess. I am sure that Ms. Pelosi is only concerned with your tax dollars and has no desire to pay back the union membership.

I do know a good tax shelter when I see one.
 

tpraceman

THEE GT OWNER
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Feb 20, 2006
2,835
Washington Michigan
Yes I am a serious conservative. And yes our platform would never condone lending the USA big 3 money so maybe our prayers for this country were heard and this liberal government will serve a purpose.

The main purpose of the feds is to help in a major catastrophe that comes against its citizens. Storms, War or Economic storms. The difference is we all put our money in a pool (tax) for such a emergency and not to be used as a on-going cost.

With that said I respect the opinion of GT Tech. Rich is a great example of our fantastic US auto industry (Andy you should have had him on your team), which I hope all of us can attribute many innovations that affect each and every one of us in many ways.

We all can save our big 3 in a few short months if we can convince just 20% of import car buyers to buy from the US automakers. No loans will be needed in the future.
With the loan the Fed's should commission all tech universities to work on fuel efficient ideas and share them with the US auto industry (like Japan does)

What we will get for buying USA big 3 cars.
  1. The news will have to find some other doom and gloom story
  2. Our stock market will rebound and so will 401K plans
  3. Better grads who are experienced in doing real advanced work.
  4. More fuel efficient cars and home heating systems etc.
  5. Knowing most of our money stayed in the USA.
  6. Our tax draw will drop as several million people go back to work.
  7. Our Military will be supported with more than lip service through income.
  8. We will be driving great cars.
  9. USA Big 3 will be able to advance research and design.
  10. Retirees will be able to breath and not spend the end years scared.
  11. A more robust economy
  12. Less people taking from the government and more putting in.
  13. A sense we helped our countrymen and families.
To do so we all need to realize the trickle down effect R.R. (the best President ever) taught us and proved to us.

The very few Japanese plants in the US are here to appease us by their own admission. And the others are correct they add nothing to our infrastructure our elderly or our tax base. Most do not abide by our US patent laws (thanks to J. Carter 88 year lease to Honda as Japanese soil).

Finally...... Consumer Reports anounced last month, that Ford's offering as a whole with respect to Quality was as good as or better than anyone else and set a new bench mark for Toyota and Honda to follow. That should have been a shot heard around the world.
 
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dbk

Admin
Staff member
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jul 30, 2005
15,247
Metro Detroit
The irony of the whole situation is a bunch of assholes in New York who've talked down their noses at Detroit for bad management needed an astronomically larger amount to save their own ass. Believe me, many tears were not shed as they all pathetically caved in on themselves. Fierce international competition and the one of the toughest labor markets in the world hurt Detroit; what's their excuse? Just blatantly ripping off the public.

It's just sad that people in America don't care or understand about the auto industry because it employs so many Americans. I love seeing people on CNN saying "if they built better cars they'd sell more". Yes, because the domestics control only 50% of the market, the clear answer is they are not selling enough cars because they suck. Yup, that's it.
 

RALPHIE

GT Owner
Mar 1, 2007
7,278
Dire times for the auto industry will eventually manifest itself in dire times for the government, and eventually placed as a burden on the population, for as jobs are reduced and/or eliminated, a resultant loss of tax funds occurs. To make up for this, taxes will have to be raised on the remaining working middle class (since the government never seems to be able to cut its own spending). Higher taxes, imposed on businesses, will result is decreased innovation and fewer available working positions - basically bringing corporate growth to a standstill. It's a downward spiral, resulting in huge debt unpayable by any means other than higher inflation rates. In this mode, everyone loses since prices rise, wages freeze and taxes run rampant.

I think we saw this in the late '70's as double digit inflation sent everyone's standard of living down. It took a likable gifted conversationalist like Reagan to show the people that government spending (and the resultant imposed taxes) were creating the situation, not solving it.

I wish I could see a way out of the hole we're digging for our children and grandchildren. I still maintain that tariffs on imported goods, to equalize the playing field, are a necessity to keep our industries competitive. It worked in the 19th & 20th centuries, and the tariffs also funded the Federal Government - essentially taxing foreign businesses just as we tax our own.
 

AJB

GT
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jun 28, 2006
2,976
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
tpraceman--all good thoughts and ideas. Even in our neighborhoods here in Detroit to many cars are Honda Toyota and Mercedes. I ask folks why....'well I remember my 1978 Fairmont " nuff said. They don't even shop the Detroit 3 --it is un-cool.
Rich (GT Tech) - you know I value your opinions and friendship...I just wish more of your peers especially those in high places could just realize the "train is coming to the end of the track" and think like you do....we need to jointly do something dramatic..everyone is 'looking at their shoes'.

My head hurts...see everyone tomorrow.
AJB (Andy)
 

kjslider

GT Owner
Mark IV Lifetime
Mar 1, 2006
360
socal
With the stock in these great companies so beaten down I wonder why the unions don't just but them?
 

BlackICE

GT Owner
Nov 2, 2005
1,416
SF Bay Area in California
With the stock in these great companies so beaten down I wonder why the unions don't just but them?

Because they know is better to receive the paychecks, rather than writing them given the current state of the companies. Milk them until they are dry! Besides writing a check to yourself doesn't make any sense.
 
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tpraceman

THEE GT OWNER
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Feb 20, 2006
2,835
Washington Michigan
tpraceman--all good thoughts and ideas. ....we need to jointly do something dramatic..everyone is 'looking at their shoes'.

My head hurts...see everyone tomorrow.
AJB (Andy)

Andy, if I knew someone in Hollywood that could help.....
For a long time now I have had an idea for a reality show.
The plan:
Follow the dollar.
  • Life of all aspects of the big US 3.
  • Star Mike Rowe or Jay Leno.
  • Format it like a mix of dirty jobs and how its made.
  • High tech to the man on the line.
  • Suppliers engineering-testing-marketing
  • towns-shops-charities-hospitals-retirees.
  • Dealerships-transporters-test drivers-mechanics
  • Wild machines and tool & die
  • Trade shows like IMTS - SEMA -PRI
The mix is endless and the 3 presidents of our USA big 3 along with the president of the UAW need to buy in and make this TV show. Spread the work load as they all have high tech video production and advertising agency's to make it a no brainer for Hollywood.
This would educate everyone who only hears as you say my 78 Fairmont...and by the way (I put 220K on mine):thumbsup

The American people (and most of us here fall into that category) need to know & SEE where the dollar they spend goes. It would educate them in so many ways that it could actually spin off into many other areas and help people.

When I show someone my shop they are shocked at how much work and all that goes into putting just a mark on a part.......I usually get the "I had no idea."

Put the Union Dues and companies to work showing people what goes on and make it entertaining.

Got to be better than knight rider....

This is what Morita the pinnacle of Japan's business all time business leaders.

Akio Morita, the Japanese co-founder and former chairman of the Sony corporation. Quote from the book Japan can say no.
"U.S. businesses are strong in basic research, but not in product development and marketing "
 
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Doc

Huge ****ing Crybaby
May 15, 2006
113
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122669746125629365.html

Just Say No to Detroit

Given the abysmal performance by Detroit's Big Three, it would be better to send each employee a check than to waste it on a bailout, says David Yermack.


[snipped]Today, our government is being asked to put tens of billions of dollars in GM, Ford and Chrysler, but we would be much better off if Washington allowed these companies to go bankrupt and disappear.

In 1993, the legendary economist Michael Jensen gave his presidential address to the American Finance Association. Mr. Jensen's presentation included a ranking of which U.S. companies had made the most money-losing investments during the decade of the 1980s. The top two companies on his list were General Motors and Ford, which between them had destroyed $110 billion in capital between 1980 and 1990, according to Mr. Jensen's calculations.

Over the past decade, the capital destruction by GM has been breathtaking, on a greater scale than documented by Mr. Jensen for the 1980s. GM has invested $310 billion in its business between 1998 and 2007. The total depreciation of GM's physical plant during this period was $128 billion, meaning that a net $182 billion of society's capital has been pumped into GM over the past decade -- a waste of about $1.5 billion per month of national savings. The story at Ford has not been as adverse but is still disheartening, as Ford has invested $155 billion and consumed $8 billion net of depreciation since 1998.

As a society, we have very little to show for this $465 billion. At the end of 1998, GM's market capitalization was $46 billion and Ford's was $71 billion. Today both firms have negligible value, with share prices in the low single digits. Both are facing imminent bankruptcy and delisting from the major stock exchanges. Along with management, the companies' unions and even their regulators in Washington may have their own culpability, a topic that merits its own separate discussion. Yet one can only imagine how the $465 billion could have been used better -- for instance, GM and Ford could have closed their own facilities and acquired all of the shares of Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Volkswagen.

Two main arguments are being raised to justify a government rescue of the auto industry. First, large numbers of jobs may be at stake, perhaps as many as three million if one counts all the other firms that supply the Big Three. This greatly overstates the situation. Americans are not going to stop driving cars, and if GM, Ford and Chrysler disappear, other companies will expand to soak up their market share, adding jobs in the process. Many suppliers will also stay in business to satisfy the residual demand for spare parts even if the Detroit manufacturers go under. If the government wants to spend $25 billion to protect auto workers, it would do better to transfer the money to them directly (perhaps by cutting each worker a check for $10,000) rather than by keeping their unproductive employer in business.

Second, it is suggested that the failures of the U.S. financial industry, which have cost us something like $700 billion, justify bailouts of other sectors of the economy. This makes no sense. If the government diverts our national savings into businesses that have long track records of destroying investment capital, eventually we'll end up with an economy like France's -- or Zimbabwe's.
 

RV King

GT Owner
Mar 20, 2007
125
Laguna Beach, CA
Here is an article on how GM is paying their worker $31 an hour plus benefits to do crossword puzzles. We need to break these unions or this country is doomed.
http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Alt/alt.politics.bush/2005-11/msg01799.html
 

B O N Y

MODERATOR & FGT OWNER
Mark IV Lifetime
Sep 5, 2005
12,110
Fresno, Ca.
Today Ford has the best leadership of any major company in the world. They have a solid plan. I subscribe to the WSJ, and read the article as well, so what? Yes, I know the damage that Nassar and other did. What does that have to do with the future?
In my business I ask my CPA for historical data and not forecasts.

Oh by the way, I bought tens of thousands of F stock in the last week.
Guess I like to put my money where my mouth is. Every time I speak to a Ford white collar employee I am convinced that I need to do more to support F.
 

tpraceman

THEE GT OWNER
Mark II Lifetime
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Feb 20, 2006
2,835
Washington Michigan
Good Point Daniel.

I was just at a meeting in Ford Dearborn Stamping plant for the F150.

The supervisor and the workers all working hard (Note every F-150 on the lot is sold and they are working hard to fill dealer orders)

They showed me this 6 million dollar booth with wild robots with lasers welding the top to the sides.

On the roof where we would call the gutter rail these are so accurate they have done away with the rubber cover seal.

And the welding is so good they do not even have to sand it prior to paint.

Wild stuff in a place I thought would be old and out dated........all the salary and union workers were busting butts and very proud of what they were doing.

Tom
 

dbk

Admin
Staff member
Le Mans 2010 Supporter
Jul 30, 2005
15,247
Metro Detroit
Just Say No to Detroit

Wait, do you own a Ford GT? Looking through your posts I see you've never posted anything in 3 years to indicate you do.

?
 

B O N Y

MODERATOR & FGT OWNER
Mark IV Lifetime
Sep 5, 2005
12,110
Fresno, Ca.
Thanks for the good information Tom,...

What amazes me, are the folks that think BK is the answer. Most of these people obviously don't one any mutual funds, because if they really looked at what they had, chances are pretty good that they had F stock. Anybody who owns stock in a company and wants it to go bk is not playing with a full deck.
 

B O N Y

MODERATOR & FGT OWNER
Mark IV Lifetime
Sep 5, 2005
12,110
Fresno, Ca.
Wait, do you own a Ford GT? Looking through your posts I see you've never posted anything in 3 years to indicate you do.

?

I have been controlling myself and not asking that question...
Or my favorite one, if you enjoy the board, consider becoming a $upporting member....

How would you like to be a F retiree, or employee and see some of this crap on our board?