I do not think Chrysler will survive, and frankly, I don't see how they will. The only way they survive is if Cerberus commits to endlessly dumping cash into an already flaming pit.
They have by far the weakest product lineup, build some of the most poorly rated and recognized vehicles, are burning at least 1.7-2.5 billion in cash per quarter with only $9 bil in the bank, have ceased leasing operations that propped up massively flagging sales numbers, and in what is probably the worst indication of their future, have very, very little for the next product cycle in a hypercompetitive industry where constant reinvention is key. We're talking about a company that's sales have flagged 36% when they already have single digit market share.
I've said it from the start, Cerberus didn't do their due diligence on what it takes to run a massive manufacturing firm that takes years, not months, to change. It is exceedingly hard to slash and burn your way to profitability in this business, and at this point, market conditions change so rapidly due to so many variables that turnarounds A,B,C and D are very likely to fail by the time they've been implemented. Look at their track record of acquisitions in the industry. They got into GMAC at what may be recorded as the worst time in history, as they've been absolutely annihilated in the car business, and taken it ten times harder from the fiasco that is ResCap. Then they get into Chrysler and Chrysler financial, and that goes even worse. Not good.
Can someone point me to the Chrysler upside at this point? The only three things you want from the brand are Ram (killed by gas prices), minivans (killed by tastes), and Jeep (not big enough to make a difference). And oh yeah, you can't sell the brand globally, because there is zero evidence anyone can sustain a profitable vehicle manufacturing enterprise based solely in the United States at this point. Ford has already achieved statistical quality parity with Toyota on a 3-year basis, and it's done nothing to help them. Toyota themselves have felt the pain of U.S business. When the aggregate U.S economy begins to recover it will get better, but the old school U.S auto business is gone forever. Well, now they have to face the prospect the most attractive thing about Chrysler is giving a global brand access to a U.S dealer network.
So good times in Auburn Hills. On the good side, Ford and GM would benefit tremendously by slicing up that pie if Chrysler goes bye bye. ON the bad side, the shock to the supply base if Chrysler burns may do irreperable damage to one of the other two as well.
Who wants to move to Detroit! :lol