What do 2016 Monterey Results tell us????

[Voda]

Two auctions weeks tend to set the tone for the year and market (Monterey Auction week and BJ Scottsdale)
So what do we know from Monterey?

1. This is the second year in a row of an overall sales decline. ( Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/car-lif...wn-year-punctuated-record-sales#ixzz4J7n7apzU)

2. At 56 percent, the overall sell-through rate is only two percentage points lower than 2015’s. Yet that figure hides a startling fact: According to Hagerty, the sell-through rate for cars priced above $100,000 fell from 72 percent to 57 percent. Buyers are still scooping up “attainable” sub-$100K cars at market prices and shelling out for the rare $1,000,000-plus examples, especially ones with unique provenance, but perhaps it was time to take another gradual step back from the rapid appreciation.

So what about GT's? The following is a breakdown (doesn't take into account addition fees for transportation, etc.) Interesting suggestions from the numbers may suggest a trend for the market. (Prototype and Heritage excluded).

1. 5 of the GT's were given pre-sale estimates. 4 of the 5 sold for below low estimate (up to 20% below)
2. Of the 6 GT's offered by 3 different auction houses, 4 netted the seller below $240K

Introduces some interesting questions:
1. Why did sellers accept these prices when compared to asking prices on the private market?
2. Is sending your GT to auction a poor choice if you want to sell?
3. Are you better to sell privately or with a broker?
4. One auction house sold 4 GT's (seems like that wouldn't help value) so what does that say about that auction house?
5. Are the auction house estimates unrealistic and set high to encourage bidders to think they are getting a "deal"?
6. What is the true market for GT's right now?

Just some things to think about.....

 

[Vincent998]

Interesting. Of course, it's just a single data point from the same time and place (roughly). But, I suspect it means that GTs really aren't going to keep going up and up faster than the market, but will just kind of follow the general market trends. Those of us who bought cars to drive won't care very much, and those who bought at the top as speculators may lose. After all, just because you don't see them on the road very often doesn't mean GTs are rare, they're not. Look at ebay, always 10-20 for sale. The market isn't very rational, and I think there's a lot of herd mentality involved - look at Ferrari 308/328s. They built (I think) around 8,000 of them, and a few years ago you could buy a nice one for around $30k, now all of a sudden they are double that or more and why? It's the same not rare pretty slow car it always was.

 

[GTED]

My 2 cents in the order of the questions:

1. Asking price in private or any market is just that, an asking price. It doesn't reflect fair market value. As to why sellers accept the final auctioned price, only the sellers his requirement and reason for selling.
2. For a popular or "hot" car like the FGT, I'd say it is a poor choice because there are sufficient interested buyers in the market place, without the broadened exposure of an auction and related expenses/fees.
3. If sellers have the time and willing to incur the effort, sell privately. If not, broker is a reasonable alterative.
4. You said it. It does speak volume about the auction house knowingly willing to auction multiples of same car.
5. Pump up the estimated price to fuel the market, to boost prestige and potential commissions.
6. Market for the GT has cooled somewhat as compared to 1-2 years ago.

GTED

 

[Vincent998]

Having thought about these sale results a bit I wonder: for Lot F92 (the 05 red no stripe car with 4500 miles on it), with a sale price of $261K and a net to the seller of $214, what was the car's value? The price the buyer paid or the sum the seller got? If you had offered the seller $215 would he have taken it? There seem to be two "market values" here ...

And could the sellers have withdrawn their cars from the sale at the last minute, when it became clear they weren't going to reach the low estimates for the cars?

 

[Awsum GT]

Some auction houses offer the sellers the option to place a reserve price on the car... If it does not hit the reserve price there is no sale. If they were offered with no reserve, they sell at the hammer price.

 

[GKW05GT]

The winner is the auction site. Sellers were the big losers and buyers did ok. IMO

 

[Vincent998]

No reserve conditions?

Some auction houses offer the sellers the option to place a reserve price on the car... If it does not hit the reserve price there is no sale. If they were offered with no reserve, they sell at the hammer price.

I know about reserves, but I wonder if you are selling a car with no reserve, can you withdraw it from the sale, or is the contract legally binding so you must sell it no matter what it brings?

 

[Voda]

I know about reserves, but I wonder if you are selling a car with no reserve, can you withdraw it from the sale, or is the contract legally binding so you must sell it no matter what it brings?

You can not withdraw it once you sign it over. You, depending on the auction house, or someone else can bid on the car just as any other registered bidder and buy it yourself, but your paying all the commissions, etc. Commissions are higher if you place a reserve and some auction houses don't allow reserves unless certain criteria are met.

 

[TO AWSUM]

The winner is the auction site. Sellers were the big losers and buyers did ok. IMO

Absolutely. The auction houses made $50K-$80K at no risk. The owners were the losers if you are looking at making money on the sale.

 

[nautoncall]

Why even take something to auction now with the internet unless you had some really rare car where the high rollers might get in a bidding war??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kayvan]

1. Why did sellers accept these prices when compared to asking prices on the private market?
2. Is sending your GT to auction a poor choice if you want to sell?
3. Are you better to sell privately or with a broker?
View attachment 43889

I think the one reality that exotic car sales masks, is many owners cant afford them.

One would think, that the owners are sitting on their Yacht decks or Boeing Business Jets pontificating your 3 questions above.

Reality is many of auction seller/owners need to sell NOW, as in today, better yesterday.


Having been in SoCal for nearly 4 years, I will tell you nearly every sentence starts with:"I used to....."

-I used to have a Ferrari, GT, Lambo, Vette, Vintage, etc
-I used to have a Boat
-I used to live on the water, sand, hills, 90210, etc
-I used to be married to a 10
-I used to be rich

and every question you get is: "How long have you had...."

-My stock answer is 10yrs.

Exotic car purchase prices are the price of admission, not ownership.

 

[Mike Mosing]

Kayvan...that is one heck of an honest, observant...and in my opinion...correct statement. Only it isn't just Cali. The majority of auctions are for collectors who get into a Who's who and buy something they really don't want.

 

[fjpikul]

Hey, I resent that remark. I'm in Who's Who on the same page as Walter Payton, and I don't think like that.

 

[Mike Mosing]

Frank...you can't even make it on the "Who Dat?" in Louisiana!

 

[fjpikul]

Good comeback. See you in 10 days.

 

[Mike Mosing]

you have taught me ObeeFrank.

 

[MTV8]

The auction houses made $50K-$80K at no risk.

The eBay fee would have been $125 to sell these cars. Hard to justify the logic.