THE MARKET.....The real numbers...........

[SYCO GT]

Syco,
Just the cold hard facts. The data dont have opinions or emotions. It seems in FutureGTowners data, the buyers/bidders were willing to pay higher for Heritage, Blue, Tungsten, Red and less for Black and White.

There could be other variables at play here such as wheels, sound systems, etc that I was not able to pick up.

Just because it's nicely laid out, or in a chart, doesn't alone make it valuable data.

You've got to start with questioning the data and methodology, in order to understand the results.

:wink

 

[XR750]

New car

just got my GT, had been waiting 70 days , I was overseas, for work...the point? I got a fully optioned car for $158,000.

HEY GUYS IT'S THE DEALER ! tEXAS, SIGHT UNSEEN, DELIVERED PERFECT,

 

[HHGT]

I went to www.kbb.com and the 2005 with 2500 miles has a trade in value in fair condition listing at $171,000. Assuming one wants to trade theirs in and negotiate a $20K back of book you should be able to get north of $150K. The Dilemma of course, what do you trade it for.

 

[futuregtowner]

Centerpunch, you nailed it........I stand corrected

Paul, you are absolutely correct!

Bid “prices” as compared to SOLD “prices” mean little to nothing. Here is my assessment of the current situation as I explained in an earlier post:

My point, of the whole exercise, is that MY PERCEPTIONS, at this point in time indicate that a lot of cars are NOT being sold for WHATEVER reasons; winter, November election, those waiting for year-end bonus checks, WHATEVER, who knows????

It APPEARS that those who are bidding are not WILLING to pay asking/reserve price/buy-it-now prices, which MIGHT draw eventual sales prices downward in the future. THIS IS ONLY MY GUESS. (I also received a PM from one of the guys who stated he is picking up his new GT this coming Friday for a price $6K below MSRP).

BUT, BUT, BUT........Approximately 7 cars sold, that we know of, including yours, in 7 +/- weeks would lead one to SURMISE that a slight cooling-off of prices and GT’s in general, MIGHT, MAYBE, POSSIBLY lead one to conclude that it MIGHT signal an opportunity to MAYBE buy at a lower price if one were simply to wait-and-see. Only my most humble opinion.

And yes, I'd like to throttle "quiet" for his inane bidding and wasting everyones time!!!

 

[John B]

I'll tell you one more time. The "prices" of cars not sold is NOT data.

There's one guy that bids on EVERY Ford GT listed with a reserve price. If you listed a car for $500,000, he'd bid on it, yet that's not a real data point for anything.

So you really only have 7 data points (the sold cars on your list), and 4 of those (including mine) had significant miles on them.

It doesn't make sense to draw ANY conclusions from an analysis of 3 new cars sold.

Seems like I have touched a nerve here...

Although Bid prices in auctions with reserves not met are not sale prices and will result in an overall downward bias, they ARE data and indisputably reflect prices buyers are willing to pay. To that end I am comfortable that the RNM data are useful in determining the relative valuation the market places on year, milage, and color.

Personally, the resulting color rankings make perfect sense to me. In full disclosure mine is blue. For my next project I am collecting quarter mile times to determine which color is fastest. I strongly suspect Blue will also be the fastest color.

 

[centerpunch]

Although Bid prices in auctions with reserves not met are not sale prices and will result in an overall downward bias, they ARE data and indisputably reflect prices buyers are willing to pay.

That is TOTALLY wrong.

As just one example, in many, if not most, cases, the cars listed with reserves have a single bid placed by "quiet," a fake ebay bidder. It doesn't matter how much the car is listed for (and the starting bid is usually ABOVE the market price), he places a bid.

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...iet&sort=10&page=1&rows=200&completed=1&all=0

I've also discovered several examples of dealers bidding on their own cars. The bids get to $155K or so without meeting reserve. Then the car is relisted with a buy-it-now price that's lower than the previous high bids.

I have followed the market for these cars for over two years, and I can tell you for a fact that the bids in auctions where the car doesn't sell reflect absolutely nothing.

 

[ViperJoe]

"Quiet" is an absolute Jackass; we can all agree on that .....

 

[Gulf GT]

Very few cars sell on eBay in the total picture. There are tons of late model Ferrari's and Lambos sitting for months at dealers, but that doesn't mean they will sell it for an eBay at a rock bottom price. That's just not how the car dealer's work. They wait till they have someone who wants to buy the car, and then they sell it. Analyzing eBay for the lowest possible market price may help some, but to draw correlations to the overall GT market sales is folly. The two are not as related as people might think. Just try and go to a dealer who has a GT, and try to buy it for the "rock bottom" eBay price. You'll find that 90% of the dealers will ignore you. The dealer knows he will get a buyer one day, and he will. These aren’t unwanted cars, and they didn’t build so many that they won’t sell. They’ll sell, and the dealers know it, because they are all watching it happen. The inventories are falling steadily, slowly, but steadily.

 

[Nardo GT]

You are right on the money CENTERPUNCH

Today, 10:00 AM #26
centerpunch
GT Owner



Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 157

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by John B
Although Bid prices in auctions with reserves not met are not sale prices and will result in an overall downward bias, they ARE data and indisputably reflect prices buyers are willing to pay.



QUOTE:"That is TOTALLY wrong.

As just one example, in many, if not most, cases, the cars listed with reserves have a single bid placed by "quiet," a fake ebay bidder. It doesn't matter how much the car is listed for (and the starting bid is usually ABOVE the market price), he places a bid.

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.d...mpleted=1&all=0

I've also discovered several examples of dealers bidding on their own cars. The bids get to $155K or so without meeting reserve. Then the car is relisted with a buy-it-now price that's lower than the previous high bids.

I have followed the market for these cars for over two years, and I can tell you for a fact that the bids in auctions where the car doesn't sell reflect absolutely nothing." Quote from centerpunch

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Last edited by centerpunch : Today at 10:07 AM.

 

[SYCO GT]

So for example;
Blue 2006 with 5 miles would be 149,303-3(5)+6,726 = $156,014
Black 2005 with 900 miles would be 149,303-5,544-3(900)-4,603 = $136,456

To a casual observer with non-technical background, this looks like a skewed attempt to under-value Black cars, by attributing both of the negative factors (older year and more mileage) only to Black cars.

If you are controlling for color, than why add all the negative variables only to Black?

Data collection and treatment can be skewed by personal motivations. (e.g. blue GT ownership)

The intial premise of this thread and the subsequent methodology seems irrational, and does strike a nerve on those grounds alone, irrespective of the distorted results.

Can you reliably extrapolate values of 4,038 GT's on just 9 closed ebay transactions along with many non-transactions? IMHO, you should not.

Self Designated Rights Advocate for Appropriate Market Valuation of '06 Black GT's

:wink

 

[tribeca]

time for you to hit the stats books I think

 

[K-P Garage]

What is Value

With all due respect, autotrader X dollars, ebay Y dollars, dealer pricing Z dollars. Watching my son ride down the assembly line in our GT and everytime He or I press the "start engine" button......priceless. Enjoy it all !!

 

[SYCO GT]

With all due respect, autotrader X dollars, ebay Y dollars, dealer pricing Y dollars. Watching my son ride down the assembly line in our GT and everytime He or I press the "start engine" button......priceless. Enjoy it all !!

Right on. Thanks for putting it into proper perspective! Only about 4,000 of us are fortunate enough to press the button and feel the joy.

 

[Big Carrot]

I'll say it again... Ebay is a wholesale marketplace. I was in the car business for years, and we sold a LOT of cars on Ebay. Once in a while we'd hit a home run, but for the most part they went for just over black book values. We basically used ebay to pad our retail sales numbers instead of taking the cars to the auction. It was also a great source of advertising.

 

[FlorIdaho Chris]

With all due respect, autotrader X dollars, ebay Y dollars, dealer pricing Z dollars. Watching my son ride down the assembly line in our GT and everytime He or I press the "start engine" button......priceless. Enjoy it all !!

Right on Kevin! :thumbsup

 

[funat50]

EBAY purchase

I placed bids on several new from dealer GT's on Ebay, always bidding to my pre-planned ceiling. I admit I missed out on about 5 cars. On the last auction it didn't meet reserve but the dealer called and wanted bargain. It was the last day of Sep-06 and he was ready to sell and I was ready to buy. He wanted 160,00, reserve was set at 159,00, I offered 156,00, we settled at 156,750 out the door w/ all fees. Everyone was happy. I have since seen 4 other's like mine sell for 2k to 9K more. The point is I believe it's all timing. Reasons to buy or sell change everyday. The question is, is this your day!

 

[John B]

I find the auction process itself a waste of time, but I do find the expired auction information quite worthwhile. When I bought my GT, I searched ebay for auctions that ended without a sale in the color I wanted. I then called the dealers directly and said I was looking to do a deal today at MSRP and I'm going down a list of auctions that did not sell. It took me about an hour and a half to do a deal in the color I wanted at MSRP, and that was almost a year ago.

SYCO - FYI, I only offered those two examples to show people how to use the results from the regression to solve for an estimate, I really don't care what the colors are.

 

[SYCO GT]

SYCO - FYI, I only offered those two examples to show people how to use the results from the regression to solve for an estimate, I really don't care what the colors are.

Sure, I understand that. I was trying to be a little humorous too, but I failed.

 

[cfra7]

5 months of eBay minimum Prices on 2005 Ford GTs

I’ve been collecting the eBay data for the minimum selling price over the last few months:

Aug: $152K

Sept: $149K

Oct: $142K

Nov: $140K

Dec: ?

 

[cfra7]

My data is completed sales on eBay.