THE MARKET.....The real numbers...........

[futuregtowner]

Let me preface the following by saying that I have been keeping track, on EBAY, of prices and sales of GT’s for almost seven (7 ) weeks. I have been hesitant, as a non-owner, to “rain on anyone’s parade” by posting the numbers. That being said, the numbers speak for themselves so please, do not shoot the messenger! OK? (Also, been following Autotrader on line, but it’s harder to keep actual track of sales/no sales).

Also, I ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY STILL PLAN TO BUY ONE NEXT YEAR when the new house is completed and I have room in the new garage for all the goodies. I am in 100% agreement with all the guys, especially RED ROCKET, who so eloquently stated the obvious in the thread “TODAYS MARKET” by paulkopick.

At this point in my life, I probably feel like most of the rest of you. As an investment..........never ever entered my head. If the prices drop to half what I pay for it, could care less! I fully realize YOU CAN’T TAKE IT WITH YOU!!! Lookin’ for some “car” fun in my life after workin’ for 30 years, yet still plan to work on that bad boy at my “leisure“.
(Muscle cars, restorations, and car shows..........been there, done that, saw the video, and bought the DVD).

Plan to drive the heck out of it and grin from ear-to-ear!!!

With that being said, draw your own conclusions from the following:

Auction-end Yr/Color Mileage Result


10-3-06 2005/Red 695 Sold $145,000
10-04-06 2006/Tung 120 Sold $159,000
10-11-06 2006/Tung 4 Sold $160,000
10-15-06 2005/Blue 3800 Sold $147,000
10-28-06 2005/Red 16 Sold $154,000
10-31-06 2005/Black 1000 Sold $142,000
11-03-06 2006/Blue 970 Sold $150,000
(“Centerpunch”)
11-14-06 2005/Red 464 Sold $143,000
11-21-06 2005/Yellow 780 Sold $140,000
11-24-06 2006/? ? Sold $156,000
11-27-06 See eBay Item number: 200050825634
12-03-06 2006/Red 465 Sold $166,195
12-06-06 2006/Yellow 3 Sold $166,577
12-11-06 2006/Tungsten 3 Sold $164,841
12-13-06 2006/Black 2 Sold $164,841
Note - The above two cars were same dealer in Houston. Buyer may have switched color upon arrival.
12-18-06 2005/Red 878 Sold $146,900

THAT’S NOT ALL OF THEM IN THIS TIME-FRAME, ON EBAY, BUT SHOULD GIVE YOU SOME DARN GOOD STATS TO WORK WITH. ENJOY!

Thanks for all the PM's. Evidently, when I went to post the whole thread from my word processor by copying and pasting, the format of the GT FORUM kinda throws everything together real tight. So what you're looking at is:

Auction end date
Year and color
Mileage
Result

 

[Roger Vincent]

Thanks for posting the data, very instructive.

 

[Big Carrot]

Unlike most people, I've never lost more than $500 on a car. I usually buy low, keep for six months or so, and sell high. That formula usually results in making a little or at least breaking even. Looks like my luck has run out! I bought my 05 with 200 miles on it for $150k back in June, which seemed to be a pretty good deal. I can't stop driving the thing, so I have 3,500 or so on it now. Looks like I'll probably be losing my ass if I decide to sell, although Ebay is pretty much a wholesale market. We'll see!

 

[SYCO GT]

ebay

I don't think I'd be comfortable enough to buy a car off ebay. I've never engaged in a transaction over $1,000 on ebay.

But I guess the transaction still goes through a dealer typically, so it's the same thing? Is that correct?

It would be helpful to know if the transactions are through dealers or private parties...

Thanks! Information, if accurate and detailed, is always helpful and appreciated. It's a forum, not a censorship board.

Hope you get yours soon. It's a big decision. But once you make it, the torture stops and the fun begins...

For me personally, if the reserve was not met, the value of the info is somewhat limited in terms of valuation. I already have my car, so I'm not trying to be defensive, but I wonder about the value of a non completed transaction used as a gauge for valuation...Since the seller may not have been willing to sell for another $100 or another $50,000...And a willing buyer has to have a willing seller. But again, I'm no ebay expert.

 

[centerpunch]

Here's a link to completed sales that works pretty good:
http://motors.search-completed.ebay...action=compare&copagenum=1&coentrypage=search

I agree that you should ONLY consider ebay auctions that met reserve when trying to analyze the market. For example, a couple weeks ago, a GT was listed and bid up without meeting reserve, then was immediately listed with a buy-it-now price about $5K lower than the previous high bid. Clearly the first auction had fake bids.

It's also harder than before, because eBay doesn't keep completed listings in their search very long.

As for the risk of buying a car on eBay, just consider it an advertising medium. If you are buying a new GT from a Ford dealer, you may be willing to buying the car without inspecting it in person.

Or you may not. Personally, I would never pay for any car without inspecting it in person, whether new or used.

As a seller, eBay worked great for me. http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=150050567126 However, I helped by spreading the word about the car in every forum I could think of: Viper, Ferrari, Porsche, Lotus, and Corvette (where I was instantly banned for life!).

 

[06fordgt]

A lot depends on the dealer up here. Most are asking $10,000-$20,000 over msrp. A few are $30,000 over but really don't want to sell. This is a hard time to determine because most of the cars have arrived in Canada, the season is OVER and Winter is here. Most people don't think about this type of car until spring. The key is wether the dealer wants to carry it in inventory over the winter or get his money out now.

 

[futuregtowner]

My perceptions at this point in time............

I received a PM from "Big Carrot" and responded thusly:

I think you drew the same conclusions I have. I think the market for the GT's is trending downward as there have been a ton of "no sales" and bidding has not in most cases approached the "Buy it Now" price which in MANY cases has been MSRP or slightly lower from dealers. And the great majority of cars offered for sale on eBay and Autotrader are from dealers. Take a look.

Also, I disagree with you on the use of "wholesale" with regards eBay. I think that several sellers cover all the bases on trying to sell their cars in as many places as they can expose them to. By selling on eBay or Autotrader, the sold/sales price is what sets the market, so in essence it is the retail price.

I have really kept an eye on these cars daily for almost 2 months and yes eventually they ALL will be gone. But for now, I kinda think that it MIGHT, MAYBE POSSIBLE to wait for better deals to come. Who knows?

Kim

PS. Paul "Centerpunch" stated that indeed eBay worked for him and he sold his Midnight Blue GT through eBay.
My point, of the whole exercise, is that MY PERCEPTIONS, at this point in time indicate that a lot of cars are NOT being sold for WHATEVER reasons, winter, election, who knows and that it APPEARS that those who are bidding are not WILLING to pay asking prices which MIGHT draw eventual sales prices downward in the future. I also received a PM from one of the guys who stated he is picking up his new GT shortly for a price $6K below MSRP.

 

[SYCO GT]

Are you seeing the same GT's listed again on eBay after unsuccessful sales?

I've heard that buyers/sellers sometimes try to consumate deals outside of the ebay structure to avoid commissions.

Not sure if that is true, since I don't ebay much, but just wanted to raise the question.

I caution that a non-transaction may not indicate a whole lot of information, since it simply and fundamentally indicates a failure of a buyer and seller to reach agreement.

Currently, in the real estate market, less transactions are taking place, that much is a fact. But the reasons for less transactions are subject to wide speculation. It could be that the asking prices are at their highest levels ever, and sellers are not willing to pay current pricing. It could be that values are dropping. Hard to say, until transactions are completed.

With production of GT's completed, some ebay sellers may be holding out for very high prices, hence reserves not being met. But, again that would be speculation, so we don't truly know.

 

[futuregtowner]

Yes and No............

Yes, some, but not all, relist if they want to sell the vehicle. It is soooooo inexpensive to sell a vehicle on ebay, and the exposure is soooooo great, that it pays to do so.

Last summer I helped a friend sell his 1960 Corvette THROUGH ebay. (I have an account, he didn't). We got over 3,000 "hits" on the ad which I wrote and placed pictures in. I cleraly stated that the car was his and to contact him directly. The car was sold and the total cost of the ad was less than $100, because eBay does NOT take a back end selling fee. Just a straight forward listing amount.

It really does not matter if a Buyer and Seller do a deal off ebay with regards a vehicle because there is no final valuation fee on top of their listing fees. On the other hand, regular items, except real estate flat fee ads, are hit with the final selling fees which can amount to around 5% or so. Also, deals are done off eBay all the time and eBay has no control for the most part.

 

[SYCO GT]

Thanks for taking the time to make the ebay clarification.

I didn't realize that there was no back end charge on vehicle transactions. That makes sense to me now. I was wondering who could afford to sell a vehicle on ebay and pay a huge commission.

 

[Tonycan]

The market is the market on any given day:some days up, some days down. One thing is certain, however---the more GTs in he hands of owner/enthusiasts not interested in selling, and fewer GTS in the hands of dealers, will result in a stable, if not slightly appreciating marketplace.

I had an F430 for 18 months and sold it back to the dealer for what I paid for it. Money in the bank, yes. But an empty space in my heart.

So, buy and hold, buy and hold. And remember, at the end of the day, it's just a car----but what a fabulous car!

No insight here, just my opinion.

 

[paulkopick]

The Market

Great post,thanks much FutureGTowner,thats what I was looking for in my post of Todays Market. Thanks to all those who posted.I may become homeless but If I got my GT40 so what. Am in Washington state about 7-8 in my area, still asking 30-40k over MRSP.Even a 05 with 500 miles they want 189k. I wont give up. :biggrin

 

[lthlvpr]

It looks like no Silvers are on your list. Although I don't plan on selling mine, I guess it is good news.... I know Silver was one of the most limited base color production runs, so if someone wants it, they may be willing to pay more since they are not coming up for sale....

 

[centerpunch]

Great post,thanks much FutureGTowner,thats what I was looking for in my post of Todays Market. Thanks to all those who posted.I may become homeless but If I got my GT40 so what. Am in Washington state about 7-8 in my area, still asking 30-40k over MRSP.Even a 05 with 500 miles they want 189k. I wont give up. :biggrin

http://www.fordgtforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1679

 

[John B]

Interesting

FutureGTowner,
Thanks for compiling the data into such a nice format. You laid it out so nicely I found it hard to resist doing a multiple regression. It seems away from the premuim heritage color scheme, the market favors blue and dislikes black.

Here are the results:

149,303 Intercept
-5,544 2005
-3.0 per mile
+7,253 Heritage
+6,726 Blue
+3,943 Tung
+1,497 Red
+0 Yellow
-1,463 White
-4,603 Black

So for example;
Blue 2006 with 5 miles would be 149,303-3(5)+6,726 = $156,014
Black 2005 with 900 miles would be 149,303-5,544-3(900)-4,603 = $136,456

For the statisticians out there R squared=.41, I used dummy variables for 2005,2006, and the colors.

 

[SYCO GT]

It seems away from the premuim heritage color scheme, the market favors blue and dislikes black.

Really? I hadn't heard of a dislike for black, the most beautiful of all GT colors... :wink

Why did Ford increase production percentages for black from 12% of 2005 production to 15% of 2006 production?

This would also seem to fly in the face of general sports car color preferences.

The below Dupont 2005 chart shows: 1. Silver 2. Gray 3. Blue 4. Black 5. White 6. Red 7. Green 8. Light Brown 9. Yellow/Gold 10. Others.

http://www.infoplease.com/toptens/sportscarcolors.html

 

[John B]

Syco,
Just the cold hard facts. The data dont have opinions or emotions. It seems in FutureGTowners data, the buyers/bidders were willing to pay higher for Heritage, Blue, Tungsten, Red and less for Black and White.

There could be other variables at play here such as wheels, sound systems, etc that I was not able to pick up.

 

[LEMANSZ]

Here in SoCAL, black has BY FAR the highest resale value for used cars accrording to my uswed car guy...not that I plan on selling my BLACK one!

 

[SYCO GT]

Here in SoCAL, black has BY FAR the highest resale value for used cars accrording to my used car guy...not that I plan on selling my BLACK one!

This is exactly the empirical, undisputable, logical and rational data that I knew must be out there!

Lemanz! Thank you for releasing the information that we all knew in our hearts and souls must be true.

Now I can rest peacefully...

 

[centerpunch]

Syco,
Just the cold hard facts. The data dont have opinions or emotions. It seems in FutureGTowners data, the buyers/bidders were willing to pay higher for Heritage, Blue, Tungsten, Red and less for Black and White.

I'll tell you one more time. The "prices" of cars not sold is NOT data.

There's one guy that bids on EVERY Ford GT listed with a reserve price. If you listed a car for $500,000, he'd bid on it, yet that's not a real data point for anything.

So you really only have 7 data points (the sold cars on your list), and 4 of those (including mine) had significant miles on them.

It doesn't make sense to draw ANY conclusions from an analysis of 3 new cars sold.