for how long are they building the GT500?

[B O N Y]

You have to remember that a car being a collectable for the most part is emotion. You remember seeing car as a kid and later when you had the bucks you bought it. I wonder if it will be worth as much to the current generation of kids? Might explain why cars of the 30's and 40's have peaked. I own also a 69 Boss 429, only about 800 or so of them left I hear. Myself I think maybe another 10 years and the price will peak on them. I had offers of 150K for it. Maybe now is the time to sell don't know. I do know that my GT is more fun to drive for the fact I don't worry about breaking anything. If I totaled it, I could get another one. On the Boss 429 it took me 6 months and 10K to buy a new set of heads.

[/QUOTE]

I will open my hand, for years I have been writing for Sports Car Market,
Car Collector, Hemmings, Hemmings' Muscle Machine and Victory Lane doing
auction review and market analysis. I have access to a data base of transactions covering many years of sales.

I am a serious collector myself. I think I understand what is happening, not 100% sure, could be wrong.

Many people have been buying cars and other collectables as an investment after the stock market took a dump in 2000. They got scared away from a nine year run of bull market and wanted to buy another sure thing. They fuel for many had been taking equity out of real estate that was sky rocketing.
The true inside group of very rich car collectors like Chandler, Nethercutt, Meyers etc. etc. have remained constant.

Has the market peaked, well studying each and every auction one honestly has to say no, it has not, should it, do you really think these cars are worth what they are bringing? Can you compare your Boss 429 to a Stutz or MBZ300sl in workmanship, style and design, can't answer for you, I own a 429 and for me, no way. However.... I was arround and watched guys loose millions and millions of dollars on a SINGLE Ferrari, just a few years ago.

I overheard groups of guys pooling their money together at B-J last year to buy a car. That scares me.

I would guesstimate that most of the GT's that have been built are bought with the intention of being kept a long time. That was not the case of the L6, many L6's were purchased by folks who simply ticked off every option on the dealers order form and wound up in the junk yard.

My personal forecast is that you will be able to buy a GT in three to five years for 35% off the msrp and then the car will keep place with inflation.
They built to many of the GT's to expect it to become a hot collectable.

That my two cents.

 

[Doc]

I will open my hand, for years I have been writing for Sports Car Market....I have access to a data base of transactions covering many years of sales.

Thanks for your opinion.

I happen to think SCM is the best magazine in the world (authors, judgments, and entertainment). I've learned more about the collector market from them than all others combined. I'd recommend them to everyone. You can purchase the Gold membership that allows you access to their excellent data base.

:thumbsup

 

[twk63]

My personal forecast is that you will be able to buy a GT in three to five years for 35% off the msrp and then the car will keep place with inflation.

They built to many of the GT's to expect it to become a hot collectable.[/QUOTE]

I agree, this is a car that is in current production. If Ford can sell them like hotcakes, why would they discontinue production? Especially considering the fact that they lost $7 billion in 2006 alone. Ford will milk this car for all its worth.

Good luck to all of you who think this car will be worth $500K in 20 years...

 

[Doc]

Good luck to all of you who think this car will be worth $500K in 20 years...

I have no idea what any car will be worth next month (Arizona auctions) and certainly wouldn't want to guess going forward twenty years. I usually lose money on cars.

However, I do have opinions on equity investments. :biggrin

I do think that your number equals the amount that one could expect to own if they invested $160K in the stock market (i.g., simple rule of 72 compounded for 20 years).

However, you can't go for a spirited ride in a stock certificate.

A car has never been an investment for me, but it is the reason I invest since I need money to fund my addiction to cars.

 

[twk63]

However, I do have opinions on equity investments. :biggrin

I do think that your number equals the amount that one could expect to own if they invested $160K in the stock market (i.g., simple rule of 72 compounded for 20 years).

However, you can't go for a spirited ride in a stock certificate.

Being a partner at a major hedge fund, I know a little bit about equity investments too...

It is hard for me to accept that a company in such dire financial condition as Ford would purposefully limit production on the Shelby GT500 if they are finding little difficulty selling the vehicle. If I were a shareholder in the company (which I am not, at present,) I would understandably be upset at such a foolish decision.

It is furthermore difficult for me to equate a vehicle which will likely have a final production run in the 10s of thousands to have any investment value whatsoever.

If you want to buy a GT500 then do so with the understanding that you will enjoy the vehicle for what it is, an excellent price to performance bargain (at msrp), and that your vehicle will in all likelihood depreciate. If you are buying it for financial reasons...well, as I said, good luck to you.

 

[Doc]

It is hard for me to accept that a company in such dire financial condition as Ford would purposefully limit production on the Shelby GT500 if they are finding little difficulty selling the vehicle.

I agree. I own a money management firm (RIA). I've been in the business for 30 years. I remember when I could only find about one hundred hedge funds. Why can I find over 6000 now? :biggrin

I hope your fund has experienced better returns than the average hedge fund (i.g., the hedge fund index). :thumbsup

I apologize for my confusion. Although I should have understood that this thread refers to the GT500, I still thought the reference to a GT as that of the Ford GT (as it relates to my $160K investment going forward 20 years).

So, how are you invested going into 2007? :wink

 

[Empty Pockets]

Good luck to all of you who think this car will be worth $500K in 20 years...

$500K is just about 3 times it's origional MSRP ... depending on the year & number of options aboard. 'Seems like a reasonably attainable figure to me. (I doubt any of US bought one as an investment first & foremost anyway!)

There may have been 4,038 produced ... but, many will be lost to trees, telephone poles, bridge bollards, guard rails, home fires, track wipe outs, ordinary wrecks caused by fools running into 'em, OR HALF SHAFT BOLT FAILURES!:lol Others will be "lost"(?) simply to heavy modification (as far as purists are concerned).

Somewhere here on the Forum, I mentioned that back in 1973 I'd estimated my 1970 Chevelle SS454, LS6, 4-spd car would be worth $100K - or about 25 times it's MSRP - in the year 2000 ( looking at the number produced, etc). In December of 1999 it's present owner called me & mentioned he'd just paid $100K for it.
Now, I'm wunna the people saying a prestine , STOCK GT will go for around $500K in 20 yrs or so ... based on much the same thinking. As I mentioned, $500k is only THREE times it's MSRP.

It'll be interesting 2C who's right.
The only pblm for ME is - I pbly won't be around to say, "I TOLD you so", when that day arrives! :rofl :rofl :rofl (whut th' heck am I laughing about?:shrug THAT ain't funny ...:ack )

Prognosticating Pockets.

 

[B O N Y]

My personal forecast is that you will be able to buy a GT in three to five years for 35% off the msrp and then the car will keep place with inflation.


Take a look at the Ferrrari market, the cars that are appreciating were all part of small production runs, aluminum bodied v12's are all going for 7 figures. Mass produced Ferrari's all depreciate, 360's which sold for $100k over sticker when introduced can now be purchased for that amount or less. Same thing for late Lambo's, early cars which were built in small numbers are interesting to a very small group of collectors, late model Countachs and others crash down in price.

I agree the GT will drop 25%-35% and then keep place with inflation. That being said, so what, I love my car and it is not for sale. Oh, by the way, Ford stopped building the GT because they flooded the market with it, Federal mandated safety changes in 2007 would require a major redraw.

 

[Craig]

I bought my GT as an investment, not for capital apprecietion but for the GREAT dividneds.:banana:banana:banana I have not been disapointed.

 

[Doc]

small world

[off-topic] Hey Craig, I know a guy (Michael) that races a GT350 and lives in San Diego. His car is even the same color as your GT350.

[/off-topic]

 

[B O N Y]

I agree. I own a money management firm (RIA). I've been in the business for 30 years. I remember when I could only find about one hundred hedge funds. Why can I find over 6000 now? :biggrin

I hope your fund has experienced better returns than the average hedge fund (i.g., the hedge fund index). :thumbsup

I apologize for my confusion. Although I should have understood that this thread refers to the GT500, I still thought the reference to a GT as that of the Ford GT (as it relates to my $160K investment going forward 20 years).

So, how are you invested going into 2007? :wink

i'm waiting for a reply, much more interesting to me than speculating on what the toys in my warehouse are worth.:wink

 

[Doc]

i'm waiting for a reply, much more interesting to me than speculating on what the toys in my warehouse are worth.:wink

I know where the toys in my warehouse (et yard, car trailers, garage) are going: Down in market value. :wink

Nonetheless, I'll be the first pundit to subject myself to free advice and possible scorn and disbarment.
1) I'm staying with the energy plays (still overweight).
2) I am now overweight the health care sector (they had a poor 2006 and seem to be fairly valued).
3) I am buying the U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed securities (i.g., TIPS; symbol TIP).
4) I finally bought a few tech stocks.
5) I am generally bullish going into the new year. Of course, I can bail out large blocks in a few seconds (I watch a Bloomberg all day during trading hours). The thing I fear the most is the situation that I am currently not aware of (nukes, terrorist attacks, global currency problems, the derivative markets, and illiquid hedge funds).

But, I am just a small fish in a sea of sharks. :biggrin

 

[twk63]

My apologies, the GT I was referring to is the Shelby GT500, not the Ford GT. I was under the assumption that we were discussing the investment potential of the Shelby Mustang, which is going to be produced in substantial numbers. If you re-read my original post, this should be evident.

As far as how we are positioned: my firm is a hedge fund, not a beta manager. We are a multi-strategy firm and are considered to be high frequency traders, certainly relative to traditional equity managers. My positions tomorrow might be very different from my positions today and we very well may hold off-setting positions within our various strategies. Nevertheless, our general bias right now is to be short commodities with the exception of the grain markets, short bonds globally, slightly bullish the dollar, and long major market equities/short emerging market equities.

I appreciate your wishes that we outperform the hege fund indices. We are alpha managers and our objective is to generate returns independant of any underlying market index, and yes we consider that to include having low correlations to our peer group as well. I have found that we have an easier time beating the various hedge fund indices than most equity managers have in beating the S&P... :biggrin

 

[SYCO GT]

Hopefully my investments in Valero will pay for a lifetime of gasoline for my beast.

 

[Doc]

As far as how we are positioned: my firm is a hedge fund, not a beta manager.

I can appreciate your forward positions. Please explain a Beta Manager to this message board.

I have never been, nor will I ever be a beta manager. A beta manager just uses volatility to measure performance.

Nevertheless, our general bias right now is to be short commodities with the exception of the grain markets, short bonds globally, slightly bullish the dollar, and long major market equities/short emerging market equities.

You have positioned yourself in-line with the current positions of most any fund that reads The Wall Street Journal.

I wish you would be more specific as to your actual positioning.

If you are a member of the current herd-type investing, how can you exceed the returns of the general hedge fund index?

Nevertheless, our general bias right now is to be short commodities with the exception of the grain markets, short bonds globally, slightly bullish the dollar, and long major market equities/short emerging market equities.

:biggrin :biggrin OK, you have already stated that you follow the herd.

How, exactly, does this distinguish your fund from the other 6000+ hedge funds that will earn an extra annual fee from investors?

We are alpha managers and our objective is to generate returns independent of any underlying market index, and yes we consider that to include having low correlations to our peer group as well.

An alpha manager sounds like a special thing. It isn't anything to me. :biggrin
I can't spend alpha. I can only spend money. So, how did you do last year? 3 years? 5 Years?

Did you significantly outperform the S&P 500? The DOW? By how much?

That is superb. Please allow me to subject you to a little tech? Exactly how is this boilerplate explanation going to expand your returns beyond the normal returns?

I have found that we have an easier time beating the various hedge fund indices than most equity managers have in beating the S&P...

I agree. Due the large fees that are charged by the hedge funds, it is easy to beat them.

I have a great database of the hedge's. Which one is you?

Are you going to subject me to : "Bulls and bears make money; pigs get slaughtered"?

"Don't fight the Fed'?

"Don't fight the tape" (which you have expanded upon).

And "It's not a stock market; It's a market of stocks"?

No offense, but I need specifics.

 

[SYCO GT]

I agree. It would be nice to have more specifics. Not looking for statements that require disclosures, but something to sink our teeth into.

Vanguard Total Market Index could have probably beat the majority of hedge funds over the past few years.

You forgot the quote, "it's not timing the market, it's time in the market."

Heheh.

SYCO GT
Fund Manager, FORD GT: Special Situations Portfolio.
"Repeatedly and consistently outperforms Corvettes, Porsches, Ferraris, and various Manufacturers on a value to performance basis"

 

[twk63]

am deleting your posts, you don't get it, we will not tolerate your misbehavior

[/B]MODERATORS WARNING TO TWK
=====================
By telling members in an insulting manner that they don't know undertand something might be the norm on other forums. It doesn't work here, nor is it appreciated. It will not sell your idea or be welcomed. This is a forum for GT AFICONADOS, even Gordon Geko can post here if he conducts himself in a civil fashion. Enough said? Thank you!
Daniel S. Bonyhadi
559 246 7943

 

[twk63]

am deleting your posts, you don't get it, we will not tolerate your misbehavior


.

MODERATORS WARNING
+++++++++++++++
PLEASE SEE MY RANT ABOVE, THANK YOU

 

[SYCO GT]

Yes, I was a successful registered and licensed Investment Specialist, so I understand why attempting to convey humor through a basic comparison of standard market index to a hedge fund would be irrelevant.

However, I didn't expect the comparison to be irrelevant, in part, perhaps due to a lack of a sense of humor. We are in a car enthusiast forum, not at the annual FOMC gathering. (another irrelevant attempt at humor...)

In any event, it is apparent that you approach your position with passion and defend your actions, which is a good thing. I appreciate your efforts to support your convictions, although the manner appears less than consumer friendly. No problem, we're all big boys here.

I'm happy with main investment portfolio returns of 25% over 2006, and double digit returns over the last five years. But I am not personally placing the amount of capital that an institution is, and I understand their concerns and needs are different.

 

[Doc]

Beta refers to the CAPM, capital asset pricing model, which differentiates returns that are systematic (i.e. beta returns) from returns that are non-systematic (i.e. stock-specific).

:biggrin
Sorry, I guess I spent to much time studying for my MBA when I should have been drinking at a bar.

Those pesky professors taught me that there were two types of risks: Systematic and unsystematic.

They explained that systematic risks are those that are non-diversifiable. That would include market, most any investment (measured by beta), business, war, inflation, political , interest rate, liquidity, event, and financial risk.

They also explained that unsystematic risk is diverifiable. That would include residual, uncontrollable, and random event risk (labor strikes, lawsuits, and regulatory).

Based on your questions, I would say that you are almost certainly a beta manager. You seem to have little ability to differentiate between market returns and the performance of hedge funds and your definition of beta managers is completely off the mark.

There is no simple correlation between the degree of objective insight and the degree of adaptiveness of the corresponding action in need of being proved. Objective knowledge of the practical orientation in reality do not necessarily coincide.

How would you like me to answer your questions?

I was trying to bring out information that may be helpful to this board.

You seem to have little ability to differentiate between market returns and the performance of hedge funds and your definition of beta managers is completely off the mark.

I don't remember defining beta returns. :confused I did try to ask how your fund compared to a market return (i.g., any index you may choose). Please compare your fund's returns after your two and twenty.

Our positions are far, far more sophisticated and intertwined than a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

:rofl

Why don't you ask....Stevie Cohen at SAC...if alpha is anything special.

I will ask Steven the next time his firm invites me to one of his sorries. I've known him since we were at Wharton. I'd post a picture of us together, but he frowns on publicity (especially on the intraweb).

Which general hedge fund index is that?

It's called the Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index. It underperformed the S&P 500 (after fess) for two of the last three years. From 1993-2005, the CS/Tremont Index virtually matched the 10.5% total returns generated by the idiots wink) that bought the S&P 500 index.

Based on these two questions, I think I am talking to someone who spends his days listening to Jim Cramer on CNBC and thinks he knows something about the market place.

I'll admit I do not watch Jim's show (please don't tell him). Jim and I meet at a conference many years ago before he founded his hedge fund (since sold). He was darn good at what he did in those days.

You, sir, know little about the investment space I and my firm occupies. Educate yourself and come back to me with more relevant and insightful questions.

I have no interest in any further communication with you. However, I will strive to help other members of this message board to understand the market (and hopefully help them increase their returns).